Welcome to the Data Driven NHL value page. Every day I find a few plays that my model thinks are undervalued and post them for here for free. I get all the picks from the Value Vault. The Value Vault sifts through the daily NHL lines and reports the lines with an edge according to my model (GPM2).

Safe Play: Sean Couturier U 0.5 Points

This has an 76.1% chance to hit. Playable at odds better than 1.31 (-319). I found it at 1.40 (-250).

50/50 Play: Taylor Hall U 1.5 Shots

This has an 51.8% chance to hit. Playable at odds better than 1.95 (-105). I found it at 2.25 (+125).

Longshot: William Carrier Anytime Goal

This has an 8.6% chance to hit. Playable at odds better than 12.0 (+1100). I found it at 16.0 (+1500).

Results

	Average Prob.	Hit Percent	Average Odds	ROI w/ fixed stake
Safe Plays	75.8%	66.7% (2/3)	1.48 (-256)	1%
50/50 Plays	55.7%	100% (3/3)	2.07 (+107)	106.7%
Longshots	10.3%	0% (0/3)	17.33 (+1633)	-100%

Updated May 7th, 2026 at 10:50 AM.