Welcome to the Data Driven NHL value page. Every day I find a few plays that my model thinks are undervalued and post them for here for free. I get all the picks from the Value Vault. The Value Vault sifts through the daily NHL lines and reports the lines with an edge according to my model (GPM2).
Plays For June 14th
Safe Play: Brett Howden U 1.5 Shots
This has a 67.4% chance to hit. Playable at odds better than 1.48 (-206). The Value Vault found it at 2.14 (+114).
50/50 Play: Mitch Marner U 1.5 Shots
This has a 48.6% chance to hit. Playable at odds better than 2.06 (+106). The Value Vault found it at 2.44 (+144).
Longshot: Jalen Chatfield Anytime Goal
This has a 9.9% chance to hit. Playable at odds better than 11.30 (+1010). The Value Vault found it at 23.0 (+2200).
Results
| Average Prob. | Hit Percent | Average Odds | ROI w/ fixed stake | |
| Safe Plays | 71.5% | 55.6% (15/27) | 1.74 (-135) | -4.6% |
| 50/50 Plays | 53.2% | 66.7% (18/27) | 2.16 (+116) | 43.7% |
| Longshots | 10% | 7.4% (2/27) | 16.67 (+1567) | 13.0% |
A $10 stake per play has returned a profit of $140.80 (+17.4%)
Updated June 14th, 2026 at 5:17 PM.