DDH Premium and DDH Elite give you full access to the data, rankings and model outputs I post on social media, plus tools you won't find anywhere else. Members pay a monthly fee. By becoming a member, you directly support my work and get the tools I use every day.

Everything is on this website. Below is what each membership includes, then a section on each tool explaining what it shows and how it works.

Choose a membership

What Each Membership Includes

How Membership Works

  1. Create a free account on your account page. You can sign in with Google, or with your email and a password (the first time, I email you a sign-in code).
  2. Choose DDH Premium or DDH Elite on the same page. For now you finish joining on Patreon, then come back to your account page and click Link your Patreon account. Your membership shows up on the site within a minute.
  3. Open the tools. While you're signed in, every tool in your membership opens. The Member Hub lists them all, and in the menus a small lock marks any tool your membership doesn't include.

Already a member from before? Sign in with the same email you used on the old site (I'll email you a sign-in code), choose a password, then link your Patreon account. Your membership and your saved fantasy teams come with you.

If you cancel, you keep access until your next billing date.

DDH Premium

$10/month (USD)

Game Probability Hub

The GPM3 model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times, and this hub shows what comes out of those simulations for every game on the schedule over the next week. Today's games are re-run about every three hours from 2:15 AM to 8:15 PM ET with the latest lineups and starting goalies; games later in the week are updated overnight. Odds can be shown as decimal or American.

The Game Win Probabilities tab: a matchup card for every game (October 27, 2026).

The hub has four tabs:

  • Game Win Probabilities – a card for every game with each team's win probability. Flip a card to see regulation and overtime/shootout win probabilities, projected goals and projected shots.
  • Totals & Spread Probabilities – over and under probabilities for the game total and each team's total goals, the puck line, and game and team shot totals.
  • Player Prop Probabilities – over and under probabilities for every skater's goals, assists, points, shots and blocks, at lines from 0.5 to 6.5.
  • Parlay Builder – below.
The Player Prop Probabilities tab, showing goals at the 0.5 line (October 27, 2026).

Parlay Builder

The Parlay Builder calculates same-game parlay probabilities from the GPM3 simulations. The parlay probability is the share of the game's 10,000 simulations in which every leg hits, so it accounts for how the events in a game depend on each other. That's why it isn't the same as multiplying the individual leg probabilities together. The image below shows a small same-game parlay that illustrates this.

The Parlay Builder.

The probability for a single leg is displayed on the far right of that leg's entry. Multiplying 50% (Edmonton’s win probability) by 68.6% (McDavid’s point probability) gives 34%. The parlay builder shows 41.7% because these events are not independent: McDavid producing offense makes an Edmonton win more likely.

Different games are independent of each other, so you can get a multi-game parlay probability by multiplying the probabilities of same-game parlays from different games.

Here are the steps for building a parlay:

  1. Pick one of today's games in the Matchup Selection drop-down.
  2. In the Winner section, pick a team, and if you want, a margin it has to win by (0.5 means it just has to win). Choose “No Pick” to leave the winner out.
  3. In the Game Totals section and each team's totals section, choose “Over”, “Under” or “No Pick” for goals and shots, then the line.
  4. In the Player Props section, search for a player, choose the stat, “Over” or “Under”, and the line. Click (+) to add more players, up to 20.

Fantasy Hub

The Fantasy Hub is built around your league. It updates every night, so the projections are fresh every morning.

  • Settings – set up your league's scoring and roster spots and save up to 5 teams. Skater scoring covers goals, assists, power-play and penalty-kill goals and assists, plus/minus, shots, blocks and hits, with separate forward and defense weights if your league uses them. Goalie scoring covers wins, saves, goals against and shutouts. Category leagues can switch every weight to 1.
  • Skater Rankings – projections for 600+ NHL skaters in 13 categories, week by week for every week left in the season or for the rest of the season. Each player also shows his projected fantasy points for your league, his value over a replacement-level player in your league (VORP), a luck score and his ownership percentage. Filter by position, ownership and team (or just your team) and sort by any column.
  • Goalie Rankings – rest-of-season projections for 100+ goalies: wins, shots against, goals against, saves and shutouts.
  • Compare/Trade Tool – put up to 5 players on each side of a deal and compare their projected fantasy points and category totals.
  • Games by Week – how many games each team plays in a week, how many it's projected to win, and which teams play on the week's lightest nights.
  • Usage – how your roster fills your daily lineup spots, and which teams to look at for open spots.
The Skater Rankings tab.
The league setup in the Settings tab.

Trade Simulator

Put players and draft picks on each side of a trade and see who comes out ahead in goals above replacement (GAR) over the next 5 to 15 years (10 by default). Players are valued with their projected GAR for the rest of their careers. Draft picks are valued by what players taken in that spot have gone on to produce, from the 2000 to 2025 drafts. You can add an exact pick or a range like “Top-10” or “2nd round”.

The result shows the net GAR, which side it favours, and the expected GAR for each side season by season. The simulator covers skaters for now; goalies are coming. It doesn't account for salaries.

A trade in the Trade Simulator, with the expected GAR for each side over 10 years (October 27, 2026).

Skater GAR Cards

GAR (goals above replacement) is one number for a skater's total value. It adds up his impact in six areas: even-strength offense, even-strength defense, power-play offense, penalty-kill defense, finishing and penalties. Each area is measured against a replacement-level player, the kind of player any team can pick up for free.

The page has two tabs:

  • Projection Cards – a forward-looking estimate of each skater's value, from up to four past seasons weighted toward the most recent plus the current season, adjusted for age. You can switch between Ice-time Aware (based on the minutes he's expected to play) and True Talent (his quality at the average ice time for his position). The back of the card shows his projected GAR for the next seven years.
  • In-Season Cards – what a skater has done this season, or in any season back to 2011-12, as a season total or per game.

Both tabs let you compare two players side by side. The cards update every night.

Connor McDavid's projection card (October 27, 2026).

Reading the cards

The numbers on the front of a card are percentiles: a player is ranked against the other players at his position (forwards or defensemen), and a higher percentile is better. A player in the 90th percentile for even-strength defense is better at it than 90% of the players at his position. The back of the card shows his GAR in goals.

The Relative Skill Chart plots four of those percentiles (even-strength offense and defense, power-play offense and penalty-kill defense), so a bigger shape means a more complete player. VSTLTY (versatility) turns that into one number: it ranks players on those four areas combined.

Even-Strength RAPM Cards

RAPM (regularized adjusted plus-minus) isolates a player's own effect on what happens at even strength, separating him from his teammates, his opponents, the score, home ice, where his shifts start and back-to-backs. The cards show his percentile, offensively and defensively, in goals, expected goals, shots, Corsi and shot quality, along with an overall role (1st line, 2nd pair, and so on).

Choose a single season or a three-season window, back to 2011-12. Flip a card to see how a player's percentiles have changed season by season. The cards update every night.

Connor McDavid's single-season RAPM card for 2026-27 (October 27, 2026).

Player Production Projections

This page projects goals, assists and points for every NHL skater. The model plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times, game by game, using the GPM3 model's goal and assist probabilities for every game (which account for projected lineups and ice time), and adds them to what each player already has. It updates every night.

There are 2 tabs on this page:

  1. Production Cards. Pick any skater and see:
    1. His projected, median, most likely, minimum and maximum goal, assist and point totals, next to his current totals
    2. His chances of leading the league in points (Art Ross), goals (Rocket Richard) and assists
    3. The distribution of his projected point, goal and assist totals
    4. His probabilities of reaching goal, assist and point milestones
  2. Projected Leaderboards. Ranked tables you can filter by team and position:
    • Projected Scoring Leaders, sorted by points
    • Rocket Richard Probabilities
    • Art Ross Probabilities
    • Assist Leader Probabilities
Leon Draisaitl's production card (October 27, 2026).
The top of the Projected Scoring Leaders table (March 11, 2026).

DDH Elite

$20/month (USD)

DDH Elite includes everything in DDH Premium, plus the Value Vault and its downloads.

Value Vault

The Value Vault compares the GPM3 model's probabilities with the lines at more than 15 sportsbooks and shows you the lines where the model finds an edge. It uses the same model as the Game Probability Hub; what it saves you is time, because you don't have to compare the model to every sportsbook yourself. On game days it updates about every three hours from 2:15 AM to 8:15 PM ET with the latest lineups, starting goalies and prices.

The Goal Value tab of the Value Vault.

The Value Vault covers these markets in the regular season:

  • Anytime goal scorers
  • Player assists, points and shots on goal over/unders
  • Moneylines
  • Game total over/unders

For each line it shows the edge (EV), the sportsbook, the book's odds next to the model's fair odds, the model's probability, and how that player and line have done so far this season. You can choose which sportsbooks to include, or show only the best price for each line. For shots and anytime goals, a second model double-checks each line and drops the ones whose edge doesn't hold up.

Every line the Vault shows is graded once the game is over, and the full record is free on the Value Vault Performance page.

Value Vault Downloads

Every graded Value Vault line of the season in three Excel workbooks (player props, moneylines and totals), plus last season's lines that the GPM3 model also flags. They update every morning after the night's games are graded.

Free Tools

These are free for everyone, no account needed.

Season Hub

The Season Hub plays out the rest of the NHL season and the playoffs 2,000,000 times every night. It has three tabs:

  • Standings / Playoff Projections – every team's playoff and Stanley Cup odds and projected final record, for the whole league, a conference or a division.
  • NHL Team Cards – a season projections card for each team (its odds, projected points, its five likeliest first-round opponents and how its playoff odds have moved this season) and a stats card ranking it in 15 key stats, which you can compare with a second team.
  • Team Stat Rankings – all 32 teams ranked in any of 105 stats, from expected goals share and shot quality to how they do against the best and worst teams.
The season projections card for the New York Islanders (March 11, 2026).

The other free tools:

Choose a membership